토론토 주택시장 (2009년 가을)

세계적인 불황으로 인한 한파는 캐나다라고 특별히 비켜가지 않았습니다. 많은 제조업체들이 직원들을 내보내야 했으며 문을 닫아야하는 기업들도 적지 않았습니다. 일자리를 잃은 사람들이 많다보니 소비도 극도로 줄어들어 서비스업에 종사하는 사람들도 고객이 줄어간다고 아우성입니다. 식당, 세탁소, 그로서리 스토어 할 것 없이 말입니다.

유일하게 호황을 누리는 곳이 있습니다. 부동산 시장입니다. 토론토의 부동산 시장은 이상스러울 만큼 과열현상을 보이고 있습니다. 금리가 낮다는 것 외에는 특별한 호재가 없음에도 불구하고 집들이 불티나게 팔리고 있습니다.

기존의 하우스(단독주택이나 타운하우스의 주택)는 물론이요, 콘도 시장(한국으로 치면 아파트)도 뜨겁게 달아올랐습니다. 지난해와 비교하여 판매량이 무척 늘어났습니다. 지난 해 이맘때만 하더라도 건설경기가 죽지 않을까 걱정하였지요. 예상을 뒤엎고 금년 봄부터 회복이 되기 시작되더니 지금은 완전히 파는 사람 우위의 셀러즈 마켓(seller's market)으로 바뀌었습니다. 가격경쟁이 붙어 팔고자 하는 사람들은 자신이 팔려고 예상했던 가격보다 더 비싼 값에 파는 경우다 다반사입니다. 사려는 사람들끼리 가격경쟁이 붙어 값을 올려놓기 때문이지요.

백만 불(11억) 이상의 고급주택도 적지 않게 거래가 되고 있습니다. 젊은 사람들 중 좋은 직업군의 사람들 중 백만 불 이상 집을 사려는 사람들은 쏜 힐이나 리치몬드 힐 지역을 선호한다고 합니다. 이 지역은 토론토에서 백만 불 이상의 집들이 가장 많이 거래되는 지역이기도 합니다.       

2009년 10월의 토론토의 평균 집값은 지난해보다 20%가 오른 $423,559(한화 5억원)입니다. 전문가들은 말을 종합하면 2010년이나 2011년에는 지금 같은 호황은 누리지는 못할 듯 합니다. 금리가 올라갈 것이 틀림없기 때문입니다.  

<Home sales rush worries analyst>

Home buyers have been “blinded” by historically low interest rates causing a rush of sales in the housing market, which is unsustainable, says an analyst.

“What we are seeing is much more consistent with a boom economy, not a recovering economy,” Benjamin Tal, senior economist with CIBC World Markets, said in an interview.

“The problem is, people are rushing into the market and not being prudent … Consumers are blinded by the rates.”

With two months to go in the year, sales of existing homes in the Toronto area hit 74,721, just edging last year’s total figures of 74,552, according to figures released by the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Existing home sales soar­ed to 8,476 in October, up 64 per cent from the same month last year.

The average price for a home in October was up 20 per cent to $423,559, the highest on record.

Tal says activity in 2010 and 2011 should be much more subdued, especially as rates notch back up.

Condominium market 

• There were more new condominium sales in the third quarter than in the first two quarters of this year.

• The 4,617 condos sold in the third quarter are up 16 per cent over last year.

• The resale market was up 29 per cent for condos. 

(Source : TORSTAR NEWS SERVICE, November 05, 2009)  

 

<Pricey homes ride out recession>

Selling million-dollar homes in the middle of a recession is a tough slog. But the market this time around has been less painful than in the past, say luxury realtors.

"Typically in a recession luxury homes are the first to dive in price and the last to recover," says Toronto realtor Barry Cohen. "But apart from a bad winter, it looks like we haven't really skipped a beat."

Cohen sold a home on the Bridle Path for $11.8 million, the highest price for a resale home sold this year. And he currently has 22 homes listed for more than $1 million.

According to a report by ReMax ontario Atlantic Canada released Tuesday, the market for million-dollar homes in the Greater Toronto Area was actually slightly stronger this year than last.

There were 1,706 luxury home sales of $1 million or over in the GTA in the nine months ending in September, compared with 1,687 sales last year, an increase of 1 per cent. The bulk of those sales were made in the last quarter.

"A considerable shift is underway in the upper end," says Michael Polzler, executive vice-president of ReMax. "Conditions are more balanced across the board."

The luxury market still lags sales in the overall market, which are up 4.5 per cent compared with last year. But no one thought many consumers would be buying luxury properties during the downturn.

During the first four months of this year, sales of luxury homes and condos were the hardest hit, as consumers retrenched.

The market came to life when stock markets staged a comeback earlier this year, along with promises of bonus cheques on Bay Street.

"That was the green light," says Cohen. "You had the stock brokers and the fund managers coming back to the housing market."

But it's still a tenuous recovery. Most luxury sales are in the "entry-level" $1 to $1.5 million range.

Although there are 18 properties in ontario listed at more than $10 million, luxury buyers are still cautious about entering the upper end of the market, also known as "super luxury."

As a result traditional blue-chip neighbourhoods such as Rosedale and Forest Hill are seeing sales down from a year ago, while less prestigious neighbourhoods are gaining sales.

And unlike average homes, luxury homes aren't flying out the door in a week.

Cohen has one York Mills-area home listed for almost $5 million. The 9,500-square-foot heritage home has seven bedrooms and sits on a lot of 0.4 hectares. It has been on the market for five months, and the original listing price was $5.5 million. It was probably best known as the millionaire's home in Tommy Boy, a comedy starring Chris Farley, David Spade and Bo Derek.

The priciest home in ontario is a $23 million, French-inspired chateau on the Bridle Path, built by developer Paul Miklas. It is also co-listed by Cohen.

Most luxury markets are down globally. The big exception is some areas still experiencing growth, such as Asia. The largest sale of a residence has been in Hong Kong, where a condo recently went for $56.6 million (U.S.), or more than $11,000 per square foot. At just over 5,000 square feet, the condo was large, but not palatial, although the price certainly was.

In Toronto, it's not hard to hit the million-dollar mark on what would be considered a modest-looking home in some neighbourhoods.

As a result, many of the million-dollar sales are happening away from the more expensive central core, as a million dollars doesn't quite buy what it used to.

Areas like the Beach and Riverdale to the east are seeing record prices. The most expensive sale in the Beach this year was for $3.15 million. In Riverdale, the priciest listing is a historic home on a 33 feet by 360 feet lot for $3.89 million.

Young professionals trying to get more luxury bang for the buck have also moved up to Thornhill and Richmond Hill, which experienced the highest number of million-dollar home sales by neighbourhood.

In Oakville, a favourite with Bay Street bankers, prices were down by almost 20 per cent earlier this year. But prices have bounced back: this year's most expensive sale was a waterside home for $7 million.

One area that hasn't done well in the luxury homes market is Hamilton, where sales are down by 32 per cent compared with last year.

(Source: Wednesday TORONTO STAR November 4, 2009, page B3 by Tony Wong)