시장 동향(2013년 4월 첫째주)

 

금주에 토론토 스타에 실렸던 토론토 부동산 시장의 주요기사입니다. 거래는 줄어들고 있으나 가격은 크게 떨어지지 않았습니다. 콘도 시장은 다소 침체를 보이고 있습니다. 그래서인지 빌더(건축업자들은)들은 최근 분양하는 물건의 가격을 낮추고 좋은 조건을 제시합니다. 현재 분양하는 콘도들은 앞으로 4-5년 후에 입주할 물량들입니다. 향후 시장을 정확히 예측하긴 어렵지만 어차피 인플레이션은 있다고 볼 때 괜찮은 물건에 선별적으로 투자하는 건 현명한 판단이라 여겨집니다. 영과 에글링턴에 분양되고 있는 155 REDPATH, 베더스트와 아델라이데(킹 바로 위쪽)에 분양할 예정인 MUSEE는 비교적 좋은 투자처입니다.

<Toronto real estate: GTA housing sales slump 17 per cent in March, but prices continue to climb, Even condos see a slight climb in average sale prices despite significant drop in sales>

Home sales continued their downward slide across the GTA in March — down 17 per cent over the same period a year ago — but prices continue to climb, according to figures released by the Toronto Real Estate Board Wednesday.

Overall, home sales were down 14 per cent for the first quarter of 2013, thanks to a slump in sales that began last summer.

But the drop in sales has yet to impact prices: The average house price for the quarter was $519,879, up 3.2 per cent from the first quarter of 2012, said TREB.

Despite an upswing in new listings in March, heading into the peak spring market, there remains a shortage of enough houses for sale in some Toronto neighbourhoods close to the core and to transit which continues to fuel bidding wars that are pushing up prices.

Once again, condos saw the biggest slump in sales, with 18.4 fewer resale units trading hands last month over March, 2012, declines that were felt with equal force in both the City of Toronto and the 905 regions.

Prices, however, held up with Toronto condos selling for an average of $367,595, up 2 per cent over March of 2012 and 905 condos selling for an average $278,984, just 1.3 per cent more than they sold for a year earlier.

Detached homes also saw a significant downturn in sales, off almost 18 per cent year over year. But the decline was most severe in the City of Toronto at 21.6 per cent, compared to a 16.4 per cent drop in detached sales in the 905 regions.

The average detached home sold for an average $846,828 in Toronto compared to $592,265 in the 905 regions, according to TREB.

Townhouses saw the biggest price gains of all house sectors, up 5 per cent year over year to average $450,104 in the 416 region and $369,590 in the suburbs. That was despite an almost 15 per cent decline in townhome sales across the GTA.

Once again, TREB is citing last July’s tightening of mortgage lending rules and the City of Toronto’s double land transfer tax as factors in the slowdown in sales, which is happening in cities right across the country.

(From TORONTO STAR Published on Wed Apr 04, 2013)

 

<First-time buyers find Toronto real estate market hot as ever>

First-time homebuyers Jody and Michael Fegelman have heard a lot of talk over the last year about Canada’s cooling housing market. All the couple have felt is the sting of its heat.

During their 1½-year search for a home for their two young children, the Fegelmans have been on the losing end of three grueling bidding wars. They have paid for a home inspection on a place someone else got by paying $80,000 over the asking price.

They’ve felt heartache, disappointment and fear that their children Jack, 5, and Lilly, 2½, would be renters for life.

“My parents just kept saying, ‘Wait. Prices are going to come down,’ says Fegelman. “But the truth is, there is a boom going on in Toronto. I don’t think things will change or bidding wars will stop.”

Over the last four years, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has tightened mortgage lending rules in a desperate bid to bring reason to the red-hot housing market, especially in Toronto and Vancouver where prices have hit the stratosphere during the last decade, propelled largely by low interest rates.

That, combined with surging supply of new condo projects, has definitely sent a chill through Toronto’s highrise housing sector since last summer, but demand for lowrise houses shows no signs of letting up.

Although home sales were down 11.5 per cent and listings up slightly as of mid March over a year earlier, unrelenting competition among buyers for too few properties for sale — especially in the City of Toronto — saw prices jump six per cent across the GTA, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Semi-detached homes sold for an average $622,044 in the City of Toronto in mid-March, up a whopping 12.2 per cent from a year earlier (they were up just 2.9 per cent in the 905 regions to $398,328.)

Detached homes climbed by 7.2 per cent to an average $909,910 in Toronto, outpaced slightly in the 905 regions were a 7.7 per cent climb saw average prices hit $603,797.

Townhouses in the 416 region climbed by 8.2 per cent in mid March year over year to $447,460, compared to an almost seven per cent increase in the 905 regions to an average $375,420.

Even the cooling condo sector, where resale condo sales were down almost 10 per cent in mid-March year-over-year and listings have been climbing, saw price growth of 1.9 per cent in the City of Toronto, compared to just 0.2 per cent in the 905 regions.

“We’re seeing a major culture shift and a complete redefinition of what’s desirable and the (housing) market is reflecting that now,” says veteran urban planner Ken Greenberg.

“There is a new North American dream, and it’s no longer to have the suburban house and the fleet of cars. It’s living where you can buy your groceries on foot and you have access to transit.”

With the peak buying and selling period, spring market, just around the corner, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is seeing some interesting indicators as well.

“We’re not seeing as many first-time buyers getting into the market right now because of affordability, but there is a considerable pool of people who have bought over the past 10 years and have outgrown their condominiums,” says Shaun Hildebrand, CMHC’s Toronto market analyst.

“There is strong demand for move-up properties fairly close to the core.”

The biggest supply-demand imbalance right now in the GTA is for semi-detached homes priced between $500,000 and $700,000 in areas like Roncesvalles and Leslieville, says Hildebrand.

Even some areas of Durham Region, close to Toronto’s border, have seen a tightening of supply because of first-time buyers looking for more affordable housing options, he added.

At the same time, demand for downtown rentals unlike anything seen in the last 20 years has driven rents to mortgage-like levels and is starting to tip the balance in favour of owning, given slipping condo prices and low interest rates, says Hildebrand.

Despite what sounds like all good news for the housing market, selling real estate has never been harder, says veteran broker Sally Cook. And it’s bringing out the worst in the industry: Underpricing to drive up competition for what little is out there and holding off accepting offers for days to create a frenzy of longing.

“It’s become emotionally, physically and financially draining,” for would-be home buyers, as well as agents, says Cook. “I decided last year to concentrate my efforts with first-time buyers looking for condos. There’s lots of inventory and I don’t have to fight over it.”

The frustration of what turned out to be a 1½-year search for a place to call home convinced the Fegelmans they needed to try something different. on the suggestion of their agent, Ira Jelinek, they started mining MLS data earlier this month for houses that had been languishing on the market for weeks.

They were the only bidders for a derelict semi-detached house in the Vaughan Rd. and St. Clair Ave. W. area that had listed since October. Originally priced at $599,000, they were the only bidders and got it for $460,000.

That’s because it needs over $100,000 in renovations.

“It’s very hard to cool or control a market when you have so many buyers chasing the same type of houses,” says Jelinek. “Agents who sell in my demographic, to people in their late 20s and early 30s, are feeling the effects of this market, too.

“The good thing is, this will weed out a lot of the realtors who’ll just say, ‘It’s too hard right now to be an agent.’ This is when the good ones will stick out.”

(From TORONTO STAR Published on Thu Mar 28 2013)

 

<Echo kids are moving on — from their parents’ homes to downtown rentals>

Baby boomers rejoice.

All those twenty-something echo “kids” who have been living at home in the wake of the 2008 recession seem to be finally moving out of their childhood bedrooms and into the real world now that job prospects are looking brighter.

Only problem is, they are fuelling some of the most intense demand for rental accommodation seen in Toronto in the last 20 years.

“Huge pent-up demand” among 25- to 30-year-olds, combined with more people opting to rent rather than buy since the condo market started softening last summer, is putting significant pressure on Toronto’s rental market, says Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation market analyst Shaun Hildebrand.

Demand, especially for rentals in brand new downtown condo buildings, has been unrelenting right through the usually quiet winter months and bidding wars have become commonplace as folks like Nicole Shlass, 25, prepare to move out of family homes and into the heart of the city.

“Now I feel really bad for my clients when they don’t get a place, because I know how devastating it can be,” says Shlass, a novice realtor who has helped dozens of people find downtown rentals, but was recently beat out for a two-bedroom condo on Portland St. she’d hoped to share with a girlfriend.

They’ve since found a smaller, older 850-square-foot rental condo at King and Spadina where Shlass will move May 1, despite the fact her parents aren’t keen to see her leave the north Toronto home where she’s lived since graduating from university in 2010 to a bleak job market.

“I moved home because I wanted to figure out what direction I wanted to take in life. It was a very, very hard time for people my age,” says Shlass.

“But I’m very excited about the move. Most of my friends are starting to move downtown as well. For a lot of us, adult life is just starting a little later.”

Just since 2009, the rental vacancy rate has dropped from 3.1 per cent to just 1.7 per cent in purpose-built apartment buildings across the GTA. But it’s closer to just 1 per cent in highly coveted downtown condo buildings where investors have units up for grabs within walking distance of universities, medical facilities and Bay St. office towers.

At the same time, the job market has picked up considerably: Last year full-time employment in Toronto among the 25 to 44 age group hit its highest levels since 2008, says Hildebrand, with 25,000 new jobs.

Even with all the new condo projects coming on stream, it’s been hard to keep up with demand this winter from young people wanting to live downtown, says Kimberly Sears of Dash Property Management which oversees about 250 condo units for investors looking to rent them out. And the peak rental period, May 1, has yet to come.

It’s not unusual now to see rents in newer condo buildings of up to $2000 a month for a one-bedroom unit with den and parking and close to $3,000 for two-bedrooms with the same extras, says veteran realtor Jamie Johnston.

The fierce competition for a glass-and-granite box in the sky may be stressful for renters, but it’s eased some fears among housing officials that the downturn in condo sales and prices which started last summer could lead to a panicked sell-off by investors.

Toronto’s rental market has become so lucrative that 20 per cent of newly registered condos were rented out in 2012, according to Multiple Listing Service data, says Hildebrand.

Just six per cent were put up for sale.

(From TORONTO STAR Published on Thu Mar 28 2013)