양파의 효용

양파 중간크기 여덟 개를 사 등분하고 포도주 1리터 정도를 부어 삼일 정도 두었다가 아침저녁으로 한 잔씩 마시면 건강에 좋다. 양파는 많이 먹어도 몸에 나쁘지 않다. 또한, 양파를 사 등분 하여 기거하는 방 곳곳에 놓아두면 바이러스를 흡수한다. 양파가 파랗게 변하면 갈아주면 된다.

아침에 기름을 한 숟가락 입에 물고 십 분가량 입가심(이를 oil pulling이라고 한다)을 하면 건강에 좋다. 꾸준히 실행하면 몸이 좋아지는 것을 느낄 것이다.

비타민 C를 매일 1,000mg 꾸준히 복용하고 감기 기운이 있을 땐 3,000mg 정도를 먹는다. 목을 따뜻하게 하는 것이 감기에 걸리지 않게 하는 방법이며 모자를 쓰는 것도 좋다. 수면 양말을 신으면 손발을 따뜻하게 유지할 수 있다.

저녁을 함께하면서 지인이 들려준 건강에 관한 이야기이다. 지인은 케이크 등 빵을 굽는데 일가견이 있다. 빵을 굽다가 실패한 경험이 50번도 넘을 것이라고 한다. 이런 실패가 약이 되어 이제는 빵 굽는데 자신이 생겼다고 했다. 아내가 아픈 사람들을 방문할 때 남편인 자신이 빵을 구워준다고 하니 배울만한 일. 그런데 나는 음식을 만드는데 도무지 재주가 없으니 어쩌면 좋으랴.

지인은 고희를 넘기셨지만, 일선에서 일하고 계신다. 사모님 역시 67세이시나 정정하시기가 이를 데 없다. 건강을 유지하기 위한 자신만의 방법을 꾸준히 실천하니 그렇지 않을까. 나이에 관계없이 일을 계속하고 젊은이들과 어울리기를 즐겨 하는 것 또한 그 한 이유일 것이다.   

 

이 년쯤 지난 어느 겨울이 아니었나 싶다. 고든 파페(Gordon Pape)라는 분이 무슨 금융(financial) 관련 강연을 한다기에 노스욕 센터 도서관을 찾은 적이 있었다. 은퇴계획을 어떻게 할 것인가를 주제로 한 강연이 아니었나 싶다. 당시 현재의 금리는 바닥을 기고 있지만, 역사적으로(historically) 평균해 볼 때 7~8% 이상일 것이라고 말해주었던 기억이 뚜렷하다.

오늘 날짜 토론토 스타에 고든 씨가 다시 기고를 했다. 손녀의 질문을 바탕으로 자신의 의견을 기술하였다. 자녀들에게 들려줄 만한 교훈이 아닌가 하여 올려둔다.

 

<The time has come to pump your cash into oil / By: Gordon Pape>          

When you have nine grandchildren, you get used to surprises. But the email I received from the oldest one last week really took me aback.

“I just wanted to run an idea by you,” she wrote. “With the recent drop in oil prices, I thought that it would be a good idea to use $1,000 to buy stocks in an oil company. It seems an optimal time to do so, I mean, buy low and sell high, right? The market will eventually rebound and then I should be able to sell at a profit. It seems reasonably low risk, since oil is a finite resource. The only question is how long I’d have to sit on those stocks.”

This granddaughter is 22 years old. She’s a hard worker but she has never shown much interest in investing. That’s why I was both surprised and pleased at her question. Not only does it show she’s paying attention to what’s happening in the world, but she’s gone the extra step of trying to figure out how she can profit from it.

So what’s the answer? As always when it comes to investing decisions, we should start from what we know. Right now, we know that oil is cheap — the price is down to levels we have not seen since 2010. We also know that the energy industry historically has gone through boom/bust cycles. As recently as the mid-1990s, crude fell all the way to the $10 range (prices in U.S. dollars). By mid-2008, it hit an all-time high of $147 and many economists were predicting $200 by year-end. Then came the credit crunch and less than a year later a barrel of crude was selling for $35. And so it goes.

We also know that despite wind power, hydroelectricity, and Tesla, the world is going to need oil for many years to come. No one has yet invented an airplane that can fly on solar power. And we know about the laws of supply and demand. When there’s too much of a product, the price drops; when it’s in short supply the price rises.

That’s where we are right now — the world has too much crude. The sudden gusher of U.S. shale oil has thrown the economics completely out of whack. The U.S. Energy Administration predicts that stockpiles will increase at a rate of 400,000 barrels a day for the next several months at current production rates. That’s an awful lot of spare crude sloshing around in storage tanks.

If that forecast is right, the price of oil may fall even lower in the coming weeks. Some analysts are calling for $60 a barrel; a few are even suggesting it could drop as low as $50.

Under that scenario, some producers would find it uneconomic to keep pumping. Existing wells could close down, while new exploration and development would slow. Over time, global production would come back into balance with supply. Then, as often happens, the pendulum could swing in the other direction. The drop in production could lead to a supply shortage, which in turn would drive the price of oil higher and boost the price of oil stocks.

So what should my granddaughter do? Well, she’s young so she could buy now and wait for a few years until the cycle turns again. But, as she herself notes, there’s no way of telling how long that will be. My guess is that if she’s patient, she’ll be able to get her oil stocks even cheaper than they are today.

But stocks are not really her best choice. She only has $1,000 to invest. That won’t go far in the stock market and she could end up with a losing company. Someone with her limited resources who wants to own oil should look instead at an energy mutual fund or ETF. They provide exposure to a diversified portfolio with professional management at limited cost.

Since she doesn’t have much money, a no-load fund is her best choice. A quick search revealed that the BMO Global Equity Fund is the top no-load performer over the past five years with an average annual compound rate of return of 13.1 per cent (A units, to Oct. 31). Of course, it’s been trashed lately, losing almost 11 per cent in the week to Nov. 28. But many other energy funds did worse.

The fund invests in a portfolio of energy companies, most of which are small to medium in size. There are no Suncors or Encanas in the top ten list; instead you get Legacy Oil & Gas and Delphi Energy. Nor is this strictly an oil portfolio. The fund also holds shares in uranium companies and alternative energy firms.

So that’s my advice to my granddaughter. Pick a good fund, wait a little while to buy until the drop in the oil price slows, and then sit back and wait for the cycle to turn — which it will. Keep doing the same thing for the rest of your life and you’ll get rich!

(Gordon Pape is editor and publisher of the Internet Wealth Builder newsletter. His website is www.BuildingWealth.ca)

From Toronto Star Saturday Dec. 12, 2014 page B2